Massive data and gains' earnings!
In line with economic data and geopolitical tensions, we should not forget about earnings with giants’ reports ahead. The week will start with more information from France and the fate of the presidential election. Uncertainty in markets continuing with ongoing Ukraine jitters, while inflation is still at the center of the stage, returns all attention to central banks.
German IFO Business Climate - Monday
Ifo Business Climate in Germany is usually followed closely by market participants. In February, it fell to 90.1, and now in March, while analysts are waiting for a slight recovery to 94.2, we can wait for a downward surprise. War in Ukraine can change the current German business climate and expectations for the next six months. It should not be much helpful for Euro.
US Durable Goods order - Tuesday
March numbers would tell us whether the broad-based decline in orders should scare us about the fate of future capital spending plans or not. In February, orders declined 2.1% with fewer aircraft orders, but we expect the overall Durable goods orders to increase 1.4% with more orders in March. If we exclude transportation items, it had a softer fall in February, declining by -0.2% from the prior month. Expected data would not be positive for US stock markets.
Australia Q1 inflation - Wednesday
RBA minutes of the last meeting indicated faster inflation and wage growth had brought closer the timing of an initial rate hike. RBA expects the Q1-2022 core inflation above its 2%-3% medium-term target range. And the consensus estimate for Q1 CPI is a rapid increase to 3.4% and the headline CPI to 4.6%. These numbers should support the economist forecast for an initial 15 bps policy rate raise in the June RBA meeting. It must be positive for the Australian Dollar.
BOJ Outlook Report and Monetary Policy Statement - Thursday
Yen expected to regain some of its loss during this week. Despite major central banks, BOJ continues its monetary-fiscal policy support by an unlimited amount of bonds purchases at a fixed rate. BoJ governor Mr. Kuroda also emphasized that the Japanese economy still needs help. However, we know that Yen has already moved towards its 20-year lows and the Yields on JGB's spiking. Now, the question is, how long can this policy be maintained?
US Q1 GDP - Thursday
The first estimates for Q1-2022 GDP growth in the US are due to release this Thursday to give us more insight into how Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the rapid rise of inflation, and ongoing supply chain shortages would possibly affect the economic growth. Overall expectations are for 0.5% increase , which are led mainly by solid business and residential investment growth that we peg at 9.9% and 7.0%, respectively. Also, we should not forget that a higher price will increase the nominal GDP number. It must be positive for the US Dollar rate.
Crazy Friday on Japanese Showa Day
While the Japanese celebrate the birthday of Emperor Shōwa, it will be a crazy day for the financial markets, especially in Europe. Starting with Australian producer inflation numbers, Friday will have more data to watch, including Caixin Manufacturing PMI, French GDP, CPI, and consumer spending, German GDP and Trade numbers, and Eurozone inflation, and GDP. Later in the North American season, the US PCE Price index and Personal Spending with Canadian GDP numbers will be in the spotlight. With these estimated data, Euro can regain some of its losses on the last day of the coming week.
Earnings and Giants
This week we will have more critical earnings to watch. Coca-Cola on Monday, Microsoft, GOOGL, Visa, PepsiCo, and 3M on Tuesday, Meta Platforms, T-Mobile US, Qualcomm, Boeing, Ford Motor, CME group, and PayPal on Wednesday, Apple, Amazon, MasterCard, Eli Lilly, Intel, McDonald's, Caterpillar, Twitter and Sony on Thursday, and finally, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Bristol and Honeywell on Friday, will be the most important earnings to watch.
