While Ruble was the best-preformed currency in 2022, and even after December's weakness, it started January stronger, with USDRUB testing 72 on January 13. Still, later things could have gone better for it.
Lately, the United States and the UK added more Russian banks to their sanctions lists, and Europeans booted more banks from SWIFT, including online lender Tinkoff and the private Alfa Bank. Russia also reacted by extending its capital control policy. However, after the sharp fall last week, Ruble could recover some of its losses as mentioned banks were much smaller compared to banks previously hit by sanctions. In addition, they already had enough time to reduce the assets that could be blocked, so it did not affect the currency so hard.
Right after the Russian attack on Ukraine and while Ruble lost its value, the central bank of Russia, with strong capital control policies, including a ban on sending foreign currencies, could support the national currency. Therefore, by reducing some of these restrictions that happened this year, while the gas price also sharply fell under $3, we can expect more pressure on Ruble in the following months.
Knowing that Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, speaking at a banking forum near Moscow, said that "Deadlines for restrictions like limits on withdrawing cash currency from bank accounts, money transfers abroad, and restrictions on withdrawals by non-residents from 'unfriendly' countries are approaching," the weakening scenario of the Ruble gets stronger.
Technical indicators remain bullish and confirm the fundamental outlook. 20-DMA at 73.36 is the fundamental support level, while the strong resistance at 80 could be challenging. From the technical point of view, we have 64.50 as a critical pivot.
