Will Putin save the Bitcoin?
After the US dollar declined from its 20-years high, BTC could gain some of its loss and breathe again above 30,000 US dollars. However, it is still moving in a clear uptrend, and today increased by more than 0.3%.
There are two reasons to be disappointed with the crypto market. First of all, we must remember that most new investors are losing as the asset trading is more than 60% lower than its all-time high that was tested just a few months ago. This price movement will add frustration among young and retail investors. "Today, newbies who joined last year are in -34% loss," Ki-Young Ju, CEO of analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in a series of tweets.
On the other hand, when we have high risks in the market, the risky asset gets less attractive. Two risks now put pressure on the markets, first of all, geopolitical tensions. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is still there, and we have no sign of it ending so soon. Continuing this tension, while increasing the military risks and the restrictions imposed on Ukrainian ports by Russia, exports of Ukrainian grain have become almost impossible. Swift and other sanctions on Russia make it too complicated and expensive to buy grain from Russia. As repeatedly UN warned, the world will face one of its worse periods of food shortage. When you have difficulty finding something to eat, BTC, or stocks, none of them can help you. Still, BTC, as a higher risky asset, gets lower demand.
None of them support the risky asset investment. On the other hand, every day, we read the articles and news that global economic growth is getting slower, reducing consumer confidence. According to Gfk data, UK consumer confidence is now at its 50-year low. Economic growth concerns and lower consumer confidence also are lowering risky asset investment.
On the technical front, and as you can see in the bellow chart, BTC has already breached its critical support at 29,000 repeatedly, and now it is trading again under this level. As long as it is there, which with current fundamental signals, it is possible to stay there, the next target at 14,000 US dollars gets more and more in the spotlight.
We can only see different sentiments in the market if Mr. Putin somehow changes the idea about continuing war or opens the ports to export, even if buyers have to pay Russia for Ukrainian grain.
